External signal·Fortune·May 20, 2026·Sheryl Estrada·4 min read
Indeed chief economist says execs are 'overestimating the speed' of AI transformation in the labor market
“I think we're overestimating the speed at which we're going to see this transformation.”
Summary
Indeed chief economist Svenja Gudell told executives at the 2026 Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit that the labor market's AI transformation is moving slower than leaders assume, even as its long-term impact is underestimated. Indeed Hiring Lab data show AI hiring remains highly concentrated: as of late 2025, 5.7% of US firms had posted at least one AI-related job (up from roughly 2% in 2018) and about 4% of postings mentioned AI, but nearly 90% of AI-related postings came from just 1% of companies. Adoption reached 49.9% among the largest firms versus only 1.3% among the smallest third. By April 2026, over 5% of Indeed postings mentioned AI. PepsiCo CPO Becky Schmitt added that scaling AI internally requires standardized processes and common data sets.
Predictions for the future of work
Gudell predicts AI's labor-market impact will unfold over months and years rather than immediately, but will hit harder than current planning anticipates; sectors most exposed to AI are seeing growing job demand, not contraction. Near term, AI-related hiring stays concentrated among a small set of giant employers before gradually diffusing to other sectors, implying most firms have a window to prepare workforce strategy before disruption broadens.
Originally published by Fortune · May 20, 2026
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